12-5-2018 Because of rising temperatures the Russian half of the Arctic Circle is becoming accessible to ships much more quickly than the US-Canadian side.
By betting on the diminishing ice sheet, Russia has taken several steps to get ahead of the game in terms of infrastructure and partners. It has commissioned a new generation of icebreakers capable of cutting through 7-foot-thick ice sheets, upgraded its Siberian ports, built a new $27-million facility on the Yamal Peninsula, invested in the biggest Arctic liquefied natural gas (LNG) project and built a railway from the LNG plant to Sabetta Port, which expands Arctic trade to Europe, China and South Korea.
The Arctic is a promising economic region for Russia, and the melting ice has many implications. First it increases Russia’s access to international trade, which was limited previously by the lack of seaports.
The melting Arctic adds to the explosive cocktail. Russia, China and the US could well find themselves embroiled in another Cold War. These three superpowers have started a race to gain influence and control in the Arctic region. At stake are as much as $35 trillion worth of untapped oil and natural gas, valuable minerals, including gold, silver, diamond, copper, titanium, graphite, uranium and invaluable rare earth elements that could soon be within reach as the ice recedes.
With the largest number of icebreakers and $300 billion in 73 projects either completed, in motion or proposed, Russia is the clear leader in Arctic infrastructure development. In 2017 Rosneft — Russia’s state oil company — marked a breakthrough in the search for hydrocarbons when it found the first oilfield in the Laptev Sea in the eastern Arctic. The company aims to have offshore Arctic oil account for 20-30% of Russian production by 2050….
When economic interests are at stake, military developments often tend to follow. Since 2012 Russia has rapidly developed its military presence in the Arctic, with a focus on air and maritime technologies. Though the Arctic remains a difficult environment to operate in, Russian military presence is growing in the region. This has led to calls for increased Western military presence as a response. https://www.fairobserver.com/more/international_security/arctic-shipping-passage-oil-exploitation-russia-china-us-global-warming-news-15241/
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11-30-2018 China made its first important foray into this dialogue in 2013 when it was recognised as an Arctic observer. Then in 2016 it announced the Polar Silk Road, a strategic element of the larger Belt and Road Initiative. China is using this strategy to assert its economic power from Asia into Europe by road, train, and shipping systems, and to accommodate expansion of Chinese production and trade. In 2018 China also published an Arctic White Paper, justifying its role in the region and detailing specific actions.
New technologies, climate realities and national aspirations are making the unique marine and terrestrial ecosystems of the Arctic increasingly available. Their economic value has also been enhanced by depletion elsewhere. A 2017 ecosystem service analysis valued the prize at some US$281 billion (1.9 trillion yuan) a year in terms of food, mineral extraction, oil production, tourism, hunting, existing value and climate regulation.
This shocking figure has implications for the regional environment, local communities and economic development opportunities. It makes the Arctic an inevitable locus for Chinese interest and investment. The opening of the Northern Sea Route will make connection more direct, reducing time and space with financial advantages through a circum-enclosure of Europe, and increased access to the United States and the Canadian North Atlantic. https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/china-claims-center-stage-at-arctic-circle-talks
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