“Our coöperation can isolate America,” Khamenei told Putin

3-29-18    In a recent address to the National Party Congress, Xi emphasized the government’s global reach over the Chinese diaspora.  “We will maintain extensive contacts with overseas Chinese nationals, returned Chinese, and their relatives and unite them so that they can join our endeavors to revitalize the Chinese nation,” he said.   http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/29/the-disappeared-china-renditions-kidnapping/
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 3-2-18  

 The deepening ties were reflected when Putin flew to Tehran, in November, for talks with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani.  “Our coöperation can isolate America,” Khamenei told Putin, according to Iran’s media.  Putin called the growing Russian-Iran coöperation “very productive....

”In November, the chief of staff of Russia’s armed forces, General Valery Gerasimov, flew to Tehran for talks with his Iranian counterpart, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, a former military intelligence expert in the Revolutionary Guards who now oversees both the Guards and the regular Iranian Army, Navy, and Air Force.

“There is good military coöperation between Iran and Russia, and, of course, there are many areas for expanding coöperation,” Bagheri declared.  The two military chiefs are in increasing contact, Russian and Iranian sources told me.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/russia-and-iran-deepen-ties-to-challenge-trump-and-the-united-states

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4-21-18   Pakistan has also endorsed Moscow-brokered peace talks on Afghanistan that exclude the United States.  This suggests that Moscow and Islamabad are seeking to challenge Washington’s long-term leverage over Afghanistan’s political future by exclusively engaging with fellow non-Western actors on a peace settlement.   https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/russia-and-pakistan-a-durable-anti-american-alliance-in-south-asia/

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2018-01-29 

Military 'agreements' in Central Asia highlight Kremlin's malign influence

From left to right: Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov, Moldovan President Igor Dodon, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev pose for a 'family photo' ahead of an informal Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders' summit outside Moscow December 26. [Kremlin] 

Caravanserai

ALMATY -- Recent developments in Central Asia involving a regional player -- particularly a number of military "agreements" -- highlight the foreign power's continuing efforts to exert malign influence in the region. 

Regional entities have been known to interfere in the domestic affairs of other nations, violating the sovereignty of independent states and intimidating neighbours. 

In Central Asia -- namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan -- foreign powers have often used military aid as a means of exercising influence. 

BTR-80 armoured personnel vehicles were among the 'military aid' Russia delivered to Tajikistan ostensibly to combat terrorism. [Russian Defence Ministry] 

On January 20, for example, Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov signed a military and technical co-operation pact, a deal that Jeenbekov arguably had little choice but to sign. Many times coercion occurs when foreign entities leverage countries' debt, as is the case with Kyrgyzstan, to coerce leaders into signing deals.  For Kyrgyzstan, a poor landlocked country with few security threats, the deal is costly and arguably makes little sense economically or militarily. 

Meanwhile, Russia's recent 'military aid' to Tajikistan is seen by analysts as a sign of Moscow's intent to deploy troops on the Tajik-Afghan border for the first time since 2005 -- a move that would undermine sovereignty in Central Asia. 

Russia's aid to Tajikistan included "small arms, artillery and armoured hardware, helicopters, communication and air defence means, logistical and medical and survey equipment", according to the Russian Defence Ministry. 

Tajikistan already hosts Russia's largest base abroad -- the 201st Military Base, which is stationed in two separate locations in Dushanbe and in Qurghonteppa, Khatlon Province, and hosts an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 troops. 

The 201st will remain in Tajikistan until 2042 at the earliest, according to an agreement Russia and Tajikistan signed in October 2012. 

Russian forces are also stationed at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan and the Kant Airbase in Kyrgyzstan.  And, more than a quarter-century after the Soviet Union's collapse, they appear to have no intention of leaving.  "Without a [military] base here, [the Russians] would immediately lose influence over Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Iran," Parviz Rasulov, a former Tajik army captain who resides in the United States, told Caravanserai. 

"If Russia leaves, that's it -- it loses Central Asia forever, the way it lost influence over Poland, the Czech Republic and other countries in Eastern Europe."  These are only the most recent examples that show how Central Asian leaders, for various reasons, have been unable or unwilling to sever ties with Moscow.   A number of foreign powers keep a close eye on the region, but Russia pays particularly close attention to Central Asian states' foreign policy, economic relations and military strategy to keep them in check geopolitically. 

Days after returning from a trip to the United States, Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev conversed by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 22, Kazinform reported.  Topics included prospects for the countries' co-operation as well as "Eurasian economic integration", a euphemism for participating in a Russian-dominated economic bloc. 

"Central Asian countries are always considered a sphere of influence of Russia," Daniyar Kussainov, a Kazakhstani-born political scientist based in Norway, told Caravanserai.  "Putin maintains influence through economic and political ties between the Russian Federation and Central Asia." 

Russian media sources, which are prevalent in Central Asia, also "play an important role [in propping up] Russian soft power in the region", he added.  The Kremlin's aggressive behaviour in Central Asia and elsewhere stems from domestic needs, observers have argued.  Putin "appears to have calculated that his regime can best do so by inflating his approval ratings with aggressive behaviour abroad", according to a US Senate report released January 10. 

The Kremlin has employed a "sophisticated combination of propaganda and suppression to keep the Russian public supportive of wars abroad and distracted from the regime's criminality and corruption at home", the report said. http://central.asia-news.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_ca/features/2018/01/29/feature-03

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5-11-18   During a conference in April of Shanghai Co-operation Organisation defence ministers in Beijing, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced Russia's intention of increasing the combat readiness of Russian military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, providing them with modern armament and military equipment. 

Russian attack aircraft fire missiles at various hypothetical targets outside Kant, Kyrgyzstan, in March 2018.  [Russian Ministry of Defence] 

Russian mobile missile launchers fire off their payload in Tajikistan in April. [Russian Ministry of Defence] 

Part of regular training for Russian troops in Tajikistan is to prepare for urban combat. A Russian soldier in Tajikistan aims his rifle during an exercise in 2017. [Russian Ministry of Defence] 

Various Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers are seen advancing across Tajik territory during a live fire exercise near Harbmaydon in 2017. [Russian Ministry of Defence] 

Russia also participated in joint counter-terrorism exercises in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in March, Shoigu said, adding that more such exercises are planned for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan this autumn. 

Russia is taking those steps to prevent militants based in northern Afghanistan from infiltrating Collective Security Treaty Organisation member states in Central Asia, he claimed. 

At the same time, the Kremlin has been regularly reporting that militants are massing along the 1,344-km Afghan-Tajik border -- a number that keeps growing, in the Kremlin's telling. 

In late 2017, Russia put that number at about 10,000, including 3,500 members of the "Islamic State".  However, in 2015 Moscow said the total number was 4,500. 

Russia's planned buildup in Central Asia says more about Moscow's determination to reassert control of its lost Soviet territories than it does about "protecting friends from enemies", contend independent observers. 

Moscow's cited reasons to boost readiness do make some sense, said Nodar Kharshiladze, a Tbilisi-based political scientist and founder of the Georgian Strategic Analysis Centre. 

Such efforts could be directed against Islamist terrorists and illegal drug trafficking emanating from Afghanistan, he told Caravanserai. The Kremlin does have a legitimate interest in neutralising such threats as far as possible from Russian borders. 

But Moscow has ulterior motives too, he warned, such as its goal of maintaining influence in a region where China is becoming a resurgent rival.  Besides investing in Central Asian countries, "China traditionally conducts military exercises with its neighbours," Kharshiladze said.   http://central.asia-news.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_ca/features/2018/05/11/feature-01