2-25-19 In late 2018 Russia sent one of its most advanced A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft to Saki Air Base in Crimea, which is home to dozens of Russian Su-30 fighters and Su-24 attack aircraft.[5] Perhaps most striking of all, by the end of 2018 Russia had concentrated at least five of its most advanced S-400 air defense batteries in and around Crimea. Together with two other S-300 air defense batteries nearby, Russian land-based air defenses in the region could simultaneously launch as many as 192 surface-to-air missiles. Interestingly their crews have been training to counter not only hostile aircraft but also sea-launched cruise missiles, seemingly in preparation for a NATO intervention. Whatever the case, the airspace above Crimea and Donbas has quickly become among the most well-defended in the world….
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s announced in October 2018 that the Southern Military District would annually receive up to 1,500 new and upgraded weapon systems, not a surprise.[8] In fact Russia would need to maintain that pace if it is to reach its military modernization goal of increasing the share of new or updated equipment in all its units from 15 percent in 2010 to 70 percent by 2021. At the end of 2018 the Southern Military District was estimated to have modernized about 50-60 percent of its equipment.[9]…
Certainly should hostilities reignite Russia’s installation of a dense network of surface-to-air missile defenses would make it difficult for Ukraine to airlift supplies into eastern Ukraine or provide air support for its ground forces there. Moreover those air defenses could deter the most readily available form of international assistance to Ukraine: NATO air power.
A further indication that hostilities could resume was the news that Russia moved some 200 T-64 tanks out of storage to an area close to its border with Ukraine in late 2018.[10] Though Russian forces no longer use them, the tanks could be transferred to pro-Russian separatist militias in Donbas where they would be an even match against the T-64 tanks that equip most of the Ukrainian army. At about the same time Ukraine’s military intelligence noted that those separatist militias had begun to increase their combat strength and readiness. https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/02/are-the-russians-coming-russias-military-buildup-near-ukraine/
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12-1-18 Speaking at a Ukrainian military event President Petro Poroshenko said Russia has deployed “more than 80,000 troops, 1,400 artillery and multiple rocket launch systems, 900 tanks, 2,300 armored combat vehicles, 500 aircraft and 300 helicopters” along their common border….“In the waters of the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and Aegean Sea more than 80 Russian ships and 8 submarines are on patrol — including 23 combat vessels.”…
The Ukrainian border service said Saturday that around 100 Russian citizens (males 16-60 years of age) had been denied entry since the border restrictions went into effect Friday. “The vast majority of (them) could not confirm the purpose of their trip to Ukraine,” Ukrainian border guard spokesman Andrei Demchenko told Ukrainian television on Saturday. https://www.apnews.com/201537791dc8404496eb4d9f5bd4d387
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"The combination of all these signs confirms the aggressiveness of the intentions and threats of a military nature against Ukraine, which are constantly increasing," Poroshenko said. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/12/05/russia-is-ramping-up-forces-near-border-ukrainian-military-chief-says-a63708
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1-20-19 Satellite imagery released by ImageSat International show what appears to be short range and nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles stationed in Krasnodar, around 270 miles south east of the Ukrainian border. The new images show a missile compound and several bunkers as well as a second compound nearby. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1074935/world-war-3-crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-border-nuclear-missiles
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1-17-19
Earlier this week Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said authorities of the former Soviet republic are being “controlled” by the West, warning it stands to lose its independence and identity as a consequence. “The continuation of such policy by the Kiev authorities can contribute to the loss of Ukraine’s statehood,” Mr Patrushev told Rossiyskaya Gazeta, according to Russian news agency Tass.
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12-23-18
20 DEC 2018: Russia is increasing its information campaign to frame Ukraine as the military aggressor should Putin decide to invade. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, and the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, are continuing to warn about an imminent Ukrainian attack on Russia-backed separatists in Eastern Ukraine and on the Kherson-Crimea Oblast border at the end of December 2018.[1] This propaganda effort could serve multiple purposes. The Russians may be intending fabricate a threat to rally separatist forces to escalate in eastern Ukraine in order to distract from Russia’s main effort north of Crimea. The Kremlin may also be attempting to frame Ukraine as the main aggressor ahead of a Russia-backed provocation in order to obfuscate blame….
22 DEC: Russia shifted 'more than a dozen Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets' to Belbek Airbase near Sevastopol, Crimea according to an unidentified 'Reuters witness.' The Russian Ministry of Defense had announced on 17 DEC that it would relocate ten Su-27SM and Su-30M2 fighter jets from Krymsk airfield in Krasnodar Territory to the Belbek airfield in Crimea.[3]…
These data points are consistent with preparations for an attack from the northern Crimean Peninsula toward the Dnepr River near the city of Kherson. Such an attack could be intended to seize the canal supplying fresh water to Crimea, which Ukraine has blocked since the 2014 Russian invasion. Putin would likely unjustifiably claim the right to invade to stop a humanitarian crisis resulting from the blockage of the canal. Such a claim has no legal validity since Crimea remains legally part of Ukraine over which Russia has no rights, and thus the status of the canal is, in law, an entirely internal Ukrainian matter.
A Russian occupation of Kherson would allow Russian forces to interfere with—and possibly cut off—ship movement into and out of Mykolaiv, one of Ukraine’s most important ports and shipbuilding centers. Such a development, together with the illegal seizure of Sevastopol and aggression around the Kerch Strait, would leave Ukraine only a single major port (Odesa) outside the Russian area of military influence….
the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution on December 17, 2018 calling for Russia to withdraw its armed forces from Crimea and another on December 22, 2018 reaffirming the UN’s position that Crimea is Ukrainian territory and condemning Russian human rights violations during its unlawful occupation of the peninsula. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/warning-update-russian-preparations-for-military-operations-in-ukraine-continue
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11-12-2018 A US think tank says it has identified at least 13 of an estimated 20 undeclared missile operating bases inside North Korea as Donald Trump hopes to persuade Kim Jong-un to give up his nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. In reports released by the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), maintenance and minor infrastructure improvements have been observed at some of the sites, according to researcher Joseph Bermudez, despite the ongoing negotiations to denuclearise the Korean peninsula. In a chilling warning to the West the sites identified in the CSIS report are scattered in remote, mountainous areas across North Korea and could be used to house ballistic missiles of various ranges, with the largest believed to be capable of striking anywhere in the United States. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1044131/world-war-3-north-korea-nuclear-missiles-usa-donald-trump-news
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4-11-19 Some 28,000 Russian soldiers are stationed in Crimea.
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12-10-2018 Defence analysts have also scoured photos available on Google Earth to reveal a build-up of 100s of Russian main battle tanks at freshly built or expanded facilities right on the border with Ukraine. Masses of trucks, tanks and stores have been assembled at facilities including Kamensk-Shakhtinsky and Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast.
Ukrainian media reports large numbers of Russian armoured infantry vehicles have also been seen crossing Moscow’s controversial Kerch Bridge into Crimea.
Russian tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles and trucks situated on the border with Ukraine at Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast. Pictures: Google EarthSource:Supplied
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/satellite-photos-reveal-buildup-of-russian-forces-on-ukraine-border/news-story/d549e80d791c9abe63adf6107e564283
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