Updated: Jan. 2, 2022
The movement around jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny is now smashed. Sergei Savostyanov / TASS The coming year in Russian politics is likely to be marked by continued repression of the remnants of political opposition and independent media, experts told The Moscow Times.
After a year in which the radical “non-systemic” opposition around jailed activist Alexei Navalny was all but destroyed, and a host of independent media outlets were declared “foreign agents” as Russia took a rapid authoritarian turn, analysts agree that more is to come.
“The regime will remain authoritarian and continue stamping out civil society,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank. “At this point, it can’t stop itself.”
But even as the state widens the net of repression, other challenges are set to influence Russia's politics in the year ahead, ranging from economic stagnation through the continuing pandemic to climate change.
“At the very minimum, we shouldn’t expect any political thaws or a let-up on the opposition,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political consultancy.
“We’ll see a further tightening of the laws, there’ll be more foreign agents, undesirable organizations and political prosecutions.” With the movement around Alexei Navalny — the dominant anti-Kremlin force for a decade — now smashed and its leaders in jail or exile and much of Russia’s civil society dismantled, the security services are likely to seek out new opponents to target under their sweeping powers. . According to Stanovaya, one obvious target is foreign IT giants whose position in the Russian market has come under pressure in the last year.
The Russian authorities’ successful campaign to force Google and Apple to remove mention of Alexei Navalny’s tactical voting scheme in advance of the September State Duma election, and their demands that social networks Facebook, Twitter and TikTok delete content identified as illegal may set the stage for a renewed push to bring Russia’s internet under Kremlin control.
Already in December, the buyout of Russia’s homegrown Facebook competitor VKontakte by Gazprom and the appointment of a new, Kremlin-linked CEO may hint at more serious attempts by the government to make good on its promises to create a “sovereign Internet” for Russia. “There are likely to be serious changes in the relationship between the state and internet giants,” said Stanovaya.
Another candidate for repression is likely to be Russia’s Communist Party, parliament’s second largest. Having ridden widespread discontent with the ruling United Russia party to a strong performance at the September Duma elections, the Communist Party (KPRF) came under pressure after some prominent members called for protests against alleged vote rigging in favour of United Russia.
Moscow KPRF boss Valery Rashkin, a leader of the party’s radical wing who had been active in pushing the party to cooperate with Navalny’s movement, was in October arrested on poaching charges he says are politically motivated. Having recently been stripped of his parliamentary immunity, he faces criminal prosecution and the loss of his seat.
For Konstantin Kalachev, head of the Political Expert Group think tank, the Communists are likely to face more problems in the new year, with the leadership pressured to expel radical lawmakers and members.
“The Communists are the last party that has managed to preserve some of its independence,” said Kalachev. “Naturally, the Kremlin doesn’t like that.” For Kalachev, the Communists, many of whose younger cadres openly sympathized with Alexei Navalny and who still command a large, genuinely nationwide support base are now the authorities’ primary domestic challengers.
To keep the country united, the authorities need enemies,” he said. “The non-systemic opposition has been destroyed, but the Kremlin still needs a fifth column. In the new year, that may well become the Communists.” Russian Communist Party member Valery Rashkin during an unauthorised rally held by the Russian Communist Party following 2021 parliamentary elections. Mikhail Tereshchenko / TASS
There is broad agreement among analysts, however, that major anti-Kremlin protests are unlikely in 2022. After street demonstrations called by Navalny’s team earlier in the year were broken up with mass arrests and, in many cases, brutal violence, the risks of attending anti-Putin protests have simply become too high. “There won’t be any major political turbulence this year,” said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Kremlin-linked Political Information Center think tank. “If it does happen, it’ll be only in 2023, and it’ll be linked to the approach of the presidential elections the year after.
For many experts, the continuing pandemic, which has been used to criminalize street protests, will play into the authorities’ hands by counteracting widespread discontent.
“Civil society isn’t satisfied with the way things are, but Covid is a strong factor against dissent,” said Mukhin. “If there were no Covid, then the situation would be much more tense.” However, amid underlying discontent over sliding living standards, rising inflation and environmental issues, some experts believe that localized causes of discontent could provoke unrest in the provinces.
For Stanovaya, one potential spur for action could be toughened Covid restrictions.
An angry reaction to the introduction of a nationwide system of QR codes restricting access to public spaces to the vaccinated, including the storming of several provincial government buildings, could presage future outbursts of unrest among Russia’s unvaccinated majority.
“If we see harsh restrictions, that could provoke anger outside Moscow. The public mood is dark and aggressive right now, and pandemic restrictions could tip the balance.”
Students show QR codes at the entrance to the Moscow City Pedagogical University. Kirill Zykov / Moskva News Agency Observers also agreed that Covid will remain a challenge in the year ahead. With Russia’s vaccination rate remaining below 40% amid widespread vaccine skepticism and soaring excess mortality, no end to the pandemic is in sight, a point recently conceded by Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
“In terms of people’s readiness to vaccinate, the situation is improving only very slowly,” said Carnegie’s Kolesnikov.
“Without extra stimuli to vaccination, like mutual recognition of vaccines with the West, the vaccine campaign will fail.”
The Kremlin’s Covid policies in the year ahead will likely prioritise avoiding the political fallout of unpopular restrictions rather than minimizing the pandemic’s impact, say experts.
“The Russian authorities are very concerned about staying on the right side of public opinion,” said Kalachev, of potential vaccine mandates.
“The Kremlin is not about to sacrifice its popularity for the sake of public health.” Even so, with support for vaccination in polls ticking up, albeit very slowly, Kalachev suggested that the severity of the epidemiological situation is such that Russia is likely to introduce some kind of nationwide compulsory vaccination program, should other countries do likewise.
Experts also agree that Covid will continue to exert a drag on Russia’s economic recovery, presenting a political problem for the Kremlin. But with economic growth likely to be limited, others caution that with inflation high, GDP growth low, and climate change-driven declines in Russia’s fossil fuel exports on the horizon, the Kremlin’s ability to defang social discontent is waning, and that Russian politics is becoming less predictable as a result. “It’s impossible to say what is going to happen, or whether new unrest will break out,” said Carnegie’s Kolesnikov. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/02/more-domestic-crackdowns-loom-on-russias-horizon-a75860 ………………………………....................................
February 11, 2022, 12:03 PM
Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Thursday that the Ukraine crisis has grown into “the most dangerous moment” for Europe in decades. Russia’s troop concentration includes forces deployed on the territory of its ally Belarus for massive joint drills involving firing live ammunition. That entered a decisive phase Thursday and will run through February 20. The Ukrainian capital is located about 75 kilometers (47 miles) south of the Belarus border.
Continuing its military buildup near Ukraine, Russia has moved six amphibious assault vessels into the Black Sea, augmenting its capability to land marines on the coast. Moscow has announced sweeping drills in the Black and Azov seas in the coming days and closed large areas for commercial shipping, drawing a strong protest from Ukraine on Thursday.
NATO has stepped up military deployments to bolster its eastern flank, with the US sending troops to Poland and Romania. The US Navy said Thursday it has deployed four destroyers from the United States to European waters. The Navy did not directly tie this deployment to the Ukraine crisis but said the ships provide “additional flexibility” to the US Sixth Fleet commander, whose area of responsibility includes the Mediterranean, and will operate in support of NATO allies.
Foreign policy advisers from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine held nearly nine hours of talks in Berlin on Thursday to try to revive the stalled agreement but made no progress.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/02/11/UK-defense-secretary-in-Moscow-amid-Russia-Ukraine-tensions
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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded an end Monday to a protest by hundreds of truckers against Covid-19 restrictions that has paralyzed the capital, as Ottawa's mayor called on federal authorities for support. "It has to stop," Trudeau said during an emergency debate in the House of Commons on his return to parliament after isolating for week due to a positive Covid-19 test.
"This pandemic has sucked for all Canadians," the premier said, visibly frustrated over the protests that have brought Ottawa to a standstill for more than week.
"But Canadians know the way to get through it is continuing to listen to science, continuing to lean on each other," he added.
"All they've got to do is come to their senses. It's up to them to resolve
The "Freedom Convoy" demonstrations began January 9 in western Canada as protests by truckers angry with vaccine requirements when crossing the US-Canadian border.
They have since morphed into broader protests against Covid-19 health restrictions and Trudeau's government. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20220208-canada-s-trudeau-says-anti-vaccine-trucker-protest-has-to-stop
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Governments of Russia, China, Germany, Austria, Canada, France, US and so forth all wanting protests to end. Don’t even protest, just give up, they rrecommend. You don’t need freedom, you have us, trust us, the governments, they all say. -r., Siskiyou County, Calif.
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