Korea update

2-19-16     North Korea is a surveillance society.  Friends and colleagues are encouraged to spy on each other, and punishment, such as speaking out against the leaders, is administered through “guilt by association”, with generations of families receiving brutal penalties for one crime.  https://www.ft.com/content/171cb624-d4a9-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54

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In 2008, the South Korean government spent $3.8 billion on programs to increase the birthrate.  The Korea Economic Institute's Elizabeth Hervey Stephen examined the effect the money had four years later and came to the conclusion that "to date, the policies have not been effective, which in large part is due to the country's work culture and gendered society."   https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/08/30/why-south-korea-predicts-its-end-will-come-in-2750/?utm_term=.30ca85d0eff8

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8-17-17   "I'm reasonably confident in the ability of our intelligence community to monitor the testing, but not the deployment, of these missile systems. Kim Jong Un and his forces are very good at camouflage, concealment and deception," Vice Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff General Paul Selva said recently. 

U.S. officials say the unpredictability of North Korea's response makes any military option risky. How neighboring China would respond is also a question military planners would have to address. 

U.S. military officials have publicly warned against a military conflict because of the catastrophic loss of life it would lead to, saying diplomatic efforts are the priority. 

"You can see the American effort is diplomatically led. It has diplomatic traction ... The tragedy of war is well enough known, it does not need another characterization beyond the fact that it would be catastrophic," U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said last week.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-military-fact-idUSKCN1AX2H6?il=0

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Now comes the hard part of fulfilling the declared goal of its leader Kim Jong Un: perfecting a nuclear device small and light enough to fit on the missile without affecting its range as well as making it capable of surviving re-entry into the earth's atmosphere. 

To do that, weapons experts say, the isolated state needs to carry out at least another nuclear test, its sixth, and more tests of long-range missiles. 

North Korea's two tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) last month likely carried a payload lighter than any nuclear warhead it is currently able to produce, the experts said.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-nuclear-idUSKCN1AX0KG?il=0

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8-16-17   Japan intends to expand its role in its alliance with Washington "and augment its defense capabilities" while the United States "remains committed to deploying its most advanced capabilities to Japan," the State Department said in a statement.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKCN1AX0A4?il=0

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4-25-17    A 2011 study by the Nautilus Institute throws a considerable amount of cold water on this scenario (of NK leveling Seoul via artillery).  While the sheer number of artillery tubes could theoretically kill a large number of civilians, operational issues complicate matters and push the number of civilian casualties greatly downward.  Despite the thousands of artillery pieces, only 700 heavier guns and rocket launchers, plus the newer 300-millimeter MRLs, have the range to strike Seoul.   Only a third would normally be fired at once, and notional rates of fire would be slowed tremendously by the need to withdraw guns into their hardened artillery sites (HARTS) to shelter them from counter battery fire.

Other factors reduce the projected loss of life in the greater Seoul metropolitan area.  The city has extensive air raid shelters for civilians that will quickly reduce the exposed population density.  The North will struggle to keep these heavy artillery units supplied with shells, particularly with its aging supply system. Finally, U.S. and ROK forces will quickly begin hunting down units participating in the bombardment, causing their numbers to drop almost immediately.  http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-annihilate-seoul-its-artillery-20345?page=2

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